Potential Shift in Iran’s Nuclear Doctrine
Kamal Kharrazi, a key adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has indicated that they may reconsider its nuclear policy if it faces an “existential threat.” In an interview with Al-Mayadeen, Kharrazi stated that Iran has the technical means to develop nuclear weapons, although Khamenei’s fatwa prohibits it. Khamenei initially issued a fatwa banning nuclear weapon development in the early 2000s, reiterating it in 2019: “Building and stockpiling nuclear bombs is wrong and using it is haram (religiously forbidden) … Although we have nuclear technology, Iran has firmly avoided it“. While the situation in the region is tensed and there are no hopes of de-escalation in near future.
With US Elections and speculating Donald Trump’s support to Israel, if he wins the election, there is no end to war appearing soon.
Iran’s Anticipated Retaliatory Attack Against Israel
Intelligence officials are concerned that Iran is preparing to launch a new assault on Israel, potentially within the coming few days. Israeli sources informed Axios that Tehran’s plan involves using drones and ballistic missiles, likely from Iraqi territory, as a response to recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, acknowledged its right to self-defense, condemning Israel’s strikes as “evil actions by the Zionist regime”. While Khamenei has given Iranian officials discretion over a retaliatory response, Israeli intelligence suggests an imminent attack could occur before the U.S. election.
Over the weekend, Israel conducted a substantial operation involving dozens of aircraft, including F-35 stealth jets and refueling planes, targeting Iranian military positions in response to Tehran’s launch of 180 missiles aimed at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem in early October. Analysts believe Iran may use Iraq-based pro-Iranian militias, such as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, to avoid direct Israeli counterattacks on Iranian soil.
Iran may quickly implement its plans, speculates U.S. officials report, though the final decision has yet to be confirmed. CNN also quoted a senior Iranian source who suggested Tehran intends a “definitive and painful” response prior to the conclusion of the U.S. presidential election.
In recent statements, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that Israel had struck Iran’s “soft underbelly” in its recent air campaign, adding that Israel now holds “greater freedom of action” within Iranian territory. Israel’s strikes have reportedly compromised key Iranian assets, including air defense systems and components critical for missile production. A spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry stated on Monday that Tehran is prepared to “use all available tools” in its response to the Israeli offensive.
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